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Old 07-11-11, 10:22 PM
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Default The 1% are the very best destroyers of wealth the world has ever seen

The 1% are the very best destroyers of wealth the world has ever seen

Our common treasury in the last 30 years has been captured by industrial psychopaths. That's why we're nearly bankrupt

George Monbiot
guardian.co.uk, Monday 7 November 2011 20.30 GMT


If wealth was the inevitable result of hard work and enterprise, every woman in Africa would be a millionaire. The claims that the ultra-rich 1% make for themselves – that they are possessed of unique intelligence or creativity or drive – are examples of the self-attribution fallacy. This means crediting yourself with outcomes for which you weren't responsible. Many of those who are rich today got there because they were able to capture certain jobs. This capture owes less to talent and intelligence than to a combination of the ruthless exploitation of others and accidents of birth, as such jobs are taken disproportionately by people born in certain places and into certain classes.

The findings of the psychologist Daniel Kahneman, winner of a Nobel economics prize, are devastating to the beliefs that financial high-fliers entertain about themselves. He discovered that their apparent success is a cognitive illusion. For example, he studied the results achieved by 25 wealth advisers across eight years. He found that the consistency of their performance was zero. "The results resembled what you would expect from a dice-rolling contest, not a game of skill." Those who received the biggest bonuses had simply got lucky.

Such results have been widely replicated. They show that traders and fund managers throughout Wall Street receive their massive remuneration for doing no better than would a chimpanzee flipping a coin. When Kahneman tried to point this out, they blanked him. "The illusion of skill … is deeply ingrained in their culture."

So much for the financial sector and its super-educated analysts. As for other kinds of business, you tell me. Is your boss possessed of judgment, vision and management skills superior to those of anyone else in the firm, or did he or she get there through bluff, bullshit and bullying?

In a study published by the journal Psychology, Crime and Law, Belinda Board and Katarina Fritzon tested 39 senior managers and chief executives from leading British businesses. They compared the results to the same tests on patients at Broadmoor special hospital, where people who have been convicted of serious crimes are incarcerated. On certain indicators of psychopathy, the bosses's scores either matched or exceeded those of the patients. In fact, on these criteria, they beat even the subset of patients who had been diagnosed with psychopathic personality disorders.

The psychopathic traits on which the bosses scored so highly, Board and Fritzon point out, closely resemble the characteristics that companies look for. Those who have these traits often possess great skill in flattering and manipulating powerful people. Egocentricity, a strong sense of entitlement, a readiness to exploit others and a lack of empathy and conscience are also unlikely to damage their prospects in many corporations.

In their book Snakes in Suits, Paul Babiak and Robert Hare point out that as the old corporate bureaucracies have been replaced by flexible, ever-changing structures, and as team players are deemed less valuable than competitive risk-takers, psychopathic traits are more likely to be selected and rewarded. Reading their work, it seems to me that if you have psychopathic tendencies and are born to a poor family, you're likely to go to prison. If you have psychopathic tendencies and are born to a rich family, you're likely to go to business school.

This is not to suggest that all executives are psychopaths. It is to suggest that the economy has been rewarding the wrong skills. As the bosses have shaken off the trade unions and captured both regulators and tax authorities, the distinction between the productive and rentier upper classes has broken down. Chief executives now behave like dukes, extracting from their financial estates sums out of all proportion to the work they do or the value they generate, sums that sometimes exhaust the businesses they parasitise. They are no more deserving of the share of wealth they've captured than oil sheikhs.

The rest of us are invited, by governments and by fawning interviews in the press, to subscribe to their myth of election: the belief that they are possessed of superhuman talents. The very rich are often described as wealth creators. But they have preyed on the earth's natural wealth and their workers' labour and creativity, impoverishing both people and planet. Now they have almost bankrupted us. The wealth creators of neoliberal mythology are some of the most effective wealth destroyers the world has ever seen.

What has happened over the past 30 years is the capture of the world's common treasury by a handful of people, assisted by neoliberal policies which were first imposed on rich nations by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. I am now going to bombard you with figures. I'm sorry about that, but these numbers need to be tattooed on our minds. Between 1947 and 1979, productivity in the US rose by 119%, while the income of the bottom fifth of the population rose by 122%. But from 1979 to 2009, productivity rose by 80%, while the income of the bottom fifth fell by 4%. In roughly the same period, the income of the top 1% rose by 270%.

In the UK, the money earned by the poorest tenth fell by 12% between 1999 and 2009, while the money made by the richest 10th rose by 37%. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, climbed in this country from 26 in 1979 to 40 in 2009.

In his book The Haves and the Have Nots, Branko Milanovic tries to discover who was the richest person who has ever lived. Beginning with the loaded Roman triumvir Marcus Crassus, he measures wealth according to the quantity of his compatriots' labour a rich man could buy. It appears that the richest man to have lived in the past 2,000 years is alive today. Carlos Slim could buy the labour of 440,000 average Mexicans. This makes him 14 times as rich as Crassus, nine times as rich as Carnegie and four times as rich as Rockefeller.


Until recently, we were mesmerised by the bosses' self-attribution. Their acolytes, in academia, the media, thinktanks and government, created an extensive infrastructure of junk economics and flattery to justify their seizure of other people's wealth. So immersed in this nonsense did we become that we seldom challenged its veracity.

This is now changing. On Sunday evening I witnessed a remarkable thing: a debate on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral between Stuart Fraser, chairman of the Corporation of the City of London, another official from the corporation, the turbulent priest Father William Taylor, John Christensen of the Tax Justice Network and the people of Occupy London. It had something of the flavour of the Putney debates of 1647. For the first time in decades – and all credit to the corporation officials for turning up – financial power was obliged to answer directly to the people.

It felt like history being made. The undeserving rich are now in the frame, and the rest of us want our money back.

The 1% are the very best destroyers ofwealth the world has ever seen | George Monbiot | Comment is free | The Guardian
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Old 07-11-11, 10:32 PM
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Originally Posted by contracycle View Post
In a study published by the journal Psychology, Crime and Law, Belinda Board and Katarina Fritzon tested 39 senior managers and chief executives from leading British businesses. They compared the results to the same tests on patients at Broadmoor special hospital, where people who have been convicted of serious crimes are incarcerated. On certain indicators of psychopathy, the bosses's scores either matched or exceeded those of the patients. In fact, on these criteria, they beat even the subset of patients who had been diagnosed with psychopathic personality disorders.
Well I don't want to undermine the idea that the successful are frequently bastards, but I feel pressed to point out that psychiatric diagnosis often has a lower accuracy rate than a chimp flipping a coin (partly, it must be said, because it's possible to verify objectively whether a coin is actually heads up or not, and it's not the chimp himself who defines the concepts of "heads" and "tails"), so it's not as though this tells us a great deal.

The majority of those poor fucks in jail are probably just hapless idiots.
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Old 08-11-11, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by contracycle View Post
Such results have been widely replicated. They show that traders and fund managers throughout Wall Street receive their massive remuneration for doing no better than would a chimpanzee flipping a coin. When Kahneman tried to point this out, they blanked him. "The illusion of skill … is deeply ingrained in their culture."


Every guy taking a course in finance is shown that result. All economic professors agree that the mutual fund industry shouldn't exist and, as a matter of fact, the industry itself has not blanked the result at all but created a new class of products - ETFs - to deliver you the exact performance of an index such as the FTSE 100 or S&P500 (or many many sub-indexes), with zero skill input. Well, they try to keep the slippage as small as possible. They also have the smallest fees - No managers and analysts to pay and lower transaction costs.

So, no, the industry isn't blind to the phenomenon.

Other than that and what Z said about the validity of psychiatric tests, I agree with the article.
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Old 08-11-11, 11:30 AM
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Well hang on, just a little while ago you were arguing that traders etc were specifically and identifiably reponsible for large profits, unlike people who are just small cogs in the machine, andf that this justified their outsize payments. How does that square with the idea that it's just dumb luck?
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Old 08-11-11, 11:39 AM
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Where?

And the answer is that - it depends. On your definition of trader. I assume that the guy meant Mutual fund portfolio managers. Because that's the set used for the results I mentioned. But that's hardly clear from the article.

'Traders' can cover too many roles. For example, 'traders' in a bank will be sell-side traders or prop traders.

Sell-side traders are really brokers. They don't take risks. Not much. But they do accumulate commissions. Until they can lay claim to having made several millions or several tens of millions for their bank. And they want a cut of it.

Prop. traders play with the bank's capital. They're the internal Hedge Funds you keep hearing about. And their returns are like those of Hedge Funds - All over the place.

Then you got Hedge Funds. IMHO, almost the only way to invest into 'trading talent'. HFs can be good, bad, average, great, disastrous. But, as opposed to mutual funds, they're unlikely to be just a tiny bit worst than the benchmark ALL of the time. I mean, some HFs have strategies that make them under-perform during rallies and boom periods. It's pretty hard then for them, mentally. OTOH, they're meant and usually do perform a lot better during crashes - i.e. they are utterly defensive. And that is worth paying for.

But performing +8% when the markets is +9% and -15% when the markets is -14%? That's useless. And that's most of the mutual funds out there.
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Old 08-11-11, 11:51 PM
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A little while ago you argued that the difference between these sort of jobs and opther jobs was that an individual could be specifically identified as having "earned" specific amounts of money for a firm, amid discussions of whther the city was being overpaid. As you say, they "make" millions and want a cut, but the point here is they really did little more than get lucky on the roulette table.
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Old 09-11-11, 12:20 AM
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So, no, in that case it ain't luck. It's working with big numbers. A broker is a broker whether he sells industrial steel, grains or equity derivatives. There's little to no risk involved and no luck.

Technically, there isn't much brain involved even if there is definitely some skills - which is why some old brokers made it from the pit and before that they might have been truck drivers or fresh vegetables wholesalers. And I always thought that a good waiter would probably be a good broker.

But that's not really trading even if they often use the same name of traders...

And, yes, many of those guys make money that is real - structured products asides. No gambling involved. And, so, yes, they want a cut.

If their banks weren't collapsing, I would have no issue with that.
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Old 09-11-11, 10:24 AM
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This is far from the best wiki article I've seen but it gives some basics of a trading floor organisation...

Trading room - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An investment bank’s typical room makes a distinction between :

- traders, whose role is to offer the best possible prices to sales, by anticipating market trends. After striking a deal with a sales, the trader arranges a reverse trade either with another trader belonging to another entity of the same institution or to an outside counterparty;


[...]

Actually, traders rarely anticipate much. They might have to, when there is a big order and the client want it done right now. Then a trader MIGHT offer a price and then unwind the position more slowly in the market, trying, obviously, to beat the price he gave to the client (on average). But such trades aren't the most common. Usually, clients will prefer a VWAP trade - VWAP - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Market makers similarly aren't looking to really run risk.

As I said, the risk stuff is either because some products engage the bank long term (some derivatives and struct. products) or on the prop. trading desk i.e. units that are meant to take risk on. And that now should be closed/sold off.
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Old 09-11-11, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Gilles de Rais View Post
So, no, in that case it ain't luck. It's working with big numbers.
I used to solve faults that were costing the company millions per day. Nobody thought I got to expect a slice.
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Old 09-11-11, 10:32 AM
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While, as I said, it is well established that mutual funds aren't very good value for money. At best, studies show they pick well enough to cover their costs and that's it.

http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-c...60th-anniv.pdf

Table 9. Mutual Fund Returns vs. the Stock
Market

Measure 1945–1965 1983–2003
Stock market return 14.9% 13.0%
Average equity fund return 13.2% 10.3%
Shortfall 1.7 pps 2.7 pps
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