Issues? What issues? The Harper Tories (with support ranging from 35-40% of voters) have only one message to spread: fear of the chaos and higher taxes that electing anyone else will bring down upon the country.
The Liberals have come out strong with a centrist platform that's not too bold anywhere nor economically disasterous, but they're hampered by a leader who, though undoubtedly brilliant academically, has come late to the realization that not all voters respond to university-style elocution.
The other solid parties - NDP (left/socialist) and Bloc Quebecois (French sovereigntist) - have no chance of forming a government and spend their public appearances shooting at targets on the two main leaders' backs while the last party, the Greens, likely won't win a single seat this time either despite having growing support across the country in the past 3 elections and presenting quite a respectable platform that's environmentally sound and in general fiscally responsible. Everybody who can't hold their nose to vote for their usual party votes Green instead, resulting in a fair percentage of popular support but not enough in any one region to win any one seat.
Harper's most likely to win another minority Conservative government. His numbers have slipped in the past week from near-majority territory to fewer seats than his last government held - mainly due to missteps by staffers in the various ridings and a steady drip-drip of scandals associated with his hand-picked appointees (such as the ballot-box kerfuffle above), but he'd have to be caught with a rent-boy to damage his standing with his hard-line base.
Harper's party was recently cited for contempt of Parliament, which triggered this election, and he will have no more cross-party support after it than he had before. It will be a messy session as Harper has never been known for working well with others. He's only been there five years in minority governments, but it seems like decades.
There are a couple of damaging reports in the offing - Afghan detainee torture and misappropriation of funds during the G8-G20 beanfest - that will greet the new government very soon after the House returns. If the Liberals and NDP together on May 3rd hold more seats than the Conservatives, things will get interesting. If a non-confidence motion brings Harper down again soon, rather than hold yet another election the Libs and NDP could ask the Governor General for a chance to form a new government between them (always supposing the leader of the NDP can submerge his ego long enough to negotiate and sign a cooperation agreement - he's an arrogant little spoiler, our Jack, with no shot at becoming Prime Minister himself but enough seats to make his ego felt in a minority government).
If the Liberals and NDP need Bloc seats to outvote Harper, any cooperative goverment is doomed because the Bloc is dedicated to separating Quebec from the rest of Canada. Their participation in a federalist coalition government would be greeted with howls of outrage from all sides, including their own followers. In this case we will likely limp along another year or so with Harper doing pretty much as he pleases until a scandal too great for even his staunch supporters to stomach triggers another election.
And another 300 million dollars out the window. Hell, it's not like we have any other need for that much dosh.
The only up side to another Harper minority is that, having failed to give his party a majority three times running, he will be listening for the knives being honed behind his back every moment he remains as leader. Torture indeed to a man who has stabbed in the back every leader he has ever worked under.
So far, though, it's a more interesting race than the mainstream media expected or was willing to admit for the first couple of weeks. The leaders of all parties except the Tories are talking policy and engaging with the different regions of the country. And now the youth-vote movement is stirring the pot even more. Fun, fun, fun.
Last edited by Jayne B; 17-04-11 at 01:50 PM.
|