UPDATE 6-US East Coast in Irene's path, rushes to prepare

Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:17pm EDT

UPDATE 6-US East Coast in Irene's path, rushes to prepare | Reuters

* New York, Washington warned to expect storm impacts

* Hurricane to land at N. Carolina, rake up coast

* New York mayor says transit system may halt on Saturday

* Bahamas taking a battering, reports of homes washed away (Updates storm position, impact on Washington)

By Neil Hartnell

NASSAU, Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Atlantic coastal residents from the barrier islands of North Carolina to the capital in Washington and the financial center of New York rushed to prepare on Thursday for an assault by powerful Hurricane Irene.

From the Carolinas to Cape Cod, more than 50 million people were potentially in Irene's path. States, cities, ports, industries, oil refineries and nuclear plants scrambled to activate emergency plans, while residents stocked up on food and water and worked to secure homes, vehicles and boats.

The U.S. Navy sent the ships of its Second Fleet out of port at Hampton Roads, Virginia, to ride out the expected powerful storm at sea.

Irene battered the low-lying Bahamas southeast of Florida as a major category 3 storm on Thursday and was expected to sweep northward to hit the North Carolina coast on Saturday, before raking the remaining Atlantic seaboard.

"All the major metropolitan areas along the Northeast are going to be impacted," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read told Reuters Insider. "Being a large hurricane, tropical storm-force winds will extend far inland."

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^

Reuters Hurricane Tracker r.reuters.com/san78n

National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Center

Skeetobite Weather Tropical Weather... Done Better!™

Weather Underground Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^>

President Barack Obama declared a state of emergency in North Carolina, authorizing federal aid to support the state's storm response.

After hitting North Carolina, Irene was expected to weaken to a still-dangerous Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale, still strong enough to slam dozens of Atlantic beach communities in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia this weekend before heading to New York on Monday. A Category 2 storm carries winds of 96 to 110 mph (154-177 kph).

U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate briefed Obama and other top officials on the threat from Irene, which included tropical-storm-force winds or worse in Washington.

Irene forced the postponement of Sunday's dedication ceremony for the new memorial honoring civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. on the National Mall in Washington.

Amtrak canceled train service south from Washington at least through Sunday.

Coastal evacuations were under way in North Carolina and were ordered for beach resorts in Virginia, Delaware and Maryland. Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell urged residents to seek shelter by Friday night, before the winds kick up.

"Saturday is going to be a horrendous day for travel. There will be roads and bridges closed," he said.

Hurricane watches and warnings were in effect along the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New Jersey. The governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut declared emergencies for Irene.

"From a flooding perspective, this could be a hundred-year event," New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said.

NEW YORK READIES

Irene will be the first hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland since Ike pounded Texas in 2008.

At 11 p.m. EDT (0300 GMT), Irene had sustained winds of 115 miles per hour (185 kph). It was moving north and its center was about 490 miles (785 km south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the United States' most populous city was bracing for at least tropical storm conditions and flooding starting on Sunday. Irene could hit Long Island, which extends due east from the city, as a Category 2 hurricane.

New York City hospitals and nursing homes in low-lying areas were ordered to evacuate unless they obtained permission to stay open. [ID:nN1E77O1YN]

"The city has already seen the power of Mother Nature once this week, and Mother Nature may not be done with us yet," Bloomberg said, referring to Tuesday's earthquake that shook the East Coast, frightening millions but causing no deaths.

He urged residents of vulnerable areas to move to safety on Friday because the New York City mass transit system, the nation's biggest with 8 million passengers a day, may have to shut down on Saturday if flooding or high winds endanger its buses, subways and commuter trains. Many New Yorkers do not have cars.[ID:nN1E77O1YN].

Irene was a huge storm and forecasters warned that even if the center stays offshore as it tracks up the Mid-Atlantic coast, its wide bands could lash cities like Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York with winds and flooding rain, uprooting trees and knocking out power.

STORM SURGE WARNING

Forecasters emphasized the risks for the densely populated U.S. Northeast, which has not had a direct hit from a hurricane in decades. Hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private forecaster Weather Underground wrote in his blog that Irene could inundate the Northeast coast with 10 to 15 feet (3-4.5 meters) of water, "the highest storm surge depths ever recorded."

Flooding from Irene killed at least one person in Puerto Rico and two in the Dominican Republic. The storm cut power in the Bahamian capital Nassau on Thursday and blocked roadways with fallen trees.

The Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency said there were reports that 90 percent of the homes and structures were destroyed in some settlements in the southeast Acklins and Crooked Islands.

The storm missed Florida but whipped up massive swells along its coast. Eight people were injured in the southeast city of Boynton Beach on Thursday when they went out on a jetty to gawk at the sea and were knocked down by a giant wave.

(Additional reporting by Tom Brown and Manuel Rueda in Miami, Daniel Trotta and Joan Gralla in New York; Vicki Allen, Laura MacInnis, Lisa Lambert and Deborah Charles in Washington; Writing by Jane Sutton; Editing by Philip Barbara)

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

F

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

Glimpse of Irene off Ft Lauderdale.

F

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

Makes for some good wallpapers.

__________________
Righteousness will always be the trap at the gates of hell

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely : Weather Underground

Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene

With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. A surge rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Wind damage
I don't think Irene is going to do a lot of wind damage to the mid-Atlantic states, since the eye of the storm will be just offshore, and the I-95 corridor from Virginia to New Jersey will be on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. The current wind distribution of Irene (Figure 1) shows almost all of the hurricane's winds are on the right side of the storm, and by the time the storm reaches Virginia, there will be likely be no hurricane-force winds on the left side of Irene. Sustained winds should stay below 74 mph (hurricane force), and wind damage will be similar to that wrought be some of the strongest Nor'easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City. Since Irene will be steadily weakening as it approaches its second landfall on Long Island, I give a 50% chance that no mainland U.S. surface station in New England will record sustained hurricane-force winds. I do think it likely that one or more of the offshore islands--Block Island, Nantucket, and Marthas Vinyard--will get Category 1 hurricane winds. Though the wind damage to buildings will be similar to what the Northeast has seen during some of the more severe nor'easters of the past 20 years, tree damage will be much worse. The trees are in full leaf during hurricane season, and catch the wind much more readily than during the winter. Tree damage will very heavy, and we can expect trees in regions with saturated soils will fall over in high winds onto power lines. Irene is likely to cause one of the top-five most widespread power outages in American history from a storm. The record power outage from a Northeast storm was probably the ten million people that lost power during the great Blizzard of 1993. I don't think Irene's power outages will be quite that extensive, but several million people will likely lose power.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In addition to storm surge, flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are the main threats. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 8" to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. New Jersey has had its 6th wettest August on record, with most of that rain falling in the past two weeks. Expect major river flooding throughout New Jersey the Delmarva Peninsula, and regions near New York City, as Irene's rains run off the saturated soils directly into the rivers. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. I don't think flooding from heavy rains will be a huge concern in North Carolina, which is under moderate to severe drought. Irene's rains are likely to do some good in Southeast Virginia, where a fire triggered by lightning from a thunderstorm on August 4 sparked a fire in the Dismal Swamp that is burning out of control. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

NYC radar plots

Current New York City NEXRAD Radar Map : Weather Underground

F

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

lil bitty storm, bunch of hoopla over nothin. The southern coast is laughing at the north.

__________________
Give unto Caesar that what is Caesar's, and lie like hell to keep as much of the rest of your shit as you can.

"If you want something said ask a man...if you want something done, ask a woman" Margaret Thatcher

That's pretty.

__________________
Standard disclaimer: the disgusting statements contained in this post are the views of the poster, and unless specified do not represent the views of the moderators or the site's owners.

Quote:

lil bitty storm, bunch of hoopla over nothin. The southern coast is laughing at the north.

From a Wind speed standpoint true.
However the storm covers such a huge area that the resulting surface water movement will result in 8-10' storm surges in some areas. Those surges will have 20' waves riding on top and they will be arriving at NYC when the tide is in too.

Plus there rainfall is 7-10" all at once over large inland areas already saturated from recent rain fall.

So yeah, cat 1 storm no biggy wind wise, but the rain and surge equivalent of a cat 2-3 storm.

Will be interesting to see the result.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene hits North Carolina : Weather Underground

F

__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36

From my FB news feed: "As long as Bloomies is ok."

Jesus wept.

__________________
Standard disclaimer: the disgusting statements contained in this post are the views of the poster, and unless specified do not represent the views of the moderators or the site's owners.