I don't see that any of this is surprising. Nobody was expecting the various Arab uprisings. Nobody had any plans for engaging in North Africa. And so the response to it was intuitive, disorganised and ad hoc.

Ad for ther idea that the still sees itself as having a hmanitarian mission, that has to be set against the anti-Obama, America-has-no-interest arguments. Woiuld Bush have bothered? He famously said "we don't do nation building" and this is pretty certainly the sort of thing he had in mind.

Maybe troops will eventually be deployed. But if so that will be more becuase of mission creep that any discernible American or European intention.

Also, the French have flown rather more than one sortie, not to mention missions by Danish, Italian, Belgian and Canadian aircraft.

According to legend the Pentagon has a department full of strategy monkeys holed up at the Pentagon or somewhere working on plans for invading every country that there is (should it become necessary, not as part of a grand plan for world domination). Might just be a story like the money train, though.

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Well if true, they must be piss-poor becuase the excuse the US gave for bombing a Belgrade hospital (with cluster bombs no less) and the Chinese embassy was that it was working from 15-year old maps.

At any rate, having such a plan doesn't necessarily imply intent or strategy. I wouldn't spite them for such preparedness at any rate.

Originally Posted by contracycle

I don't see that any of this is surprising. Nobody was expecting the various Arab uprisings. Nobody had any plans for engaging in North Africa. And so the response to it was intuitive, disorganised and ad hoc.

Well, one doesn't follow the other. So, sure, like everyone, I had not anticipated the various Arab uprisings.

And I do rely heavily on a statistical article I read long ago about crucial levels of support for dictatorship.

But I can still within minutes tell you which factors to look for in making a decision.

I do expect the Foreign Affairs dept of my government to have an up-to-date rough estimate of the various tribes of Libya and knowing what is their historical tribal lands, if any.

Armed with those few elements, a logical decision of "stay away and say nothing", "encourage the dictator", "encourage the protesters" and "intervene to execute regime change" is relatively easy.

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Originally Posted by Gilles de Rais

Well, one doesn't follow the other. So, sure, like everyone, I had not anticipated the various Arab uprisings. And I do rely heavily on a statistical article I read long ago about crucial levels of support for dictatorship. But I can still within minutes tell you which factors to look for in making a decision. I do expect the Foreign Affairs dept of my government to have an up-to-date rough estimate of the various tribes of Libya and knowing what is their historical tribal lands, if any. Armed with those few elements, a logical decision of "stay away and say nothing", "encourage the dictator", "encourage the protesters" and "intervene to execute regime change" is relatively easy.

You should read; Theories of International Politics and Zombies

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