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Old 11-12-10, 02:21 AM
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Lightbulb Doctors shocked by spread of swine flu – and its severity

Doctors shocked by spread of swine flu – and its severity

H1N1 virus returns, already claiming lives of 10 British adults with early signs that illness has spread to other European countries

By Jeremy Laurance, Health Editor

Saturday, 11 December 2010

Doctors shocked by spread of swine flu – and its severity - Health News, Health & Families - The Independent

The Swine flu virus that swept the world last year causing a global health emergency has returned to claim the lives of 10 adults in the UK in the past six weeks

The 10 deaths were in younger adults under 65 and associated with H1N1 swine flu. Most had underlying conditions but "a small proportion" were healthy before being struck down by the virus, according to the Health Protection Agency (HPA).

Seasonal flu normally causes severe illness and death in the elderly. The H1N1 swine flu virus targets pregnant women, younger adults, and those with chronic conditions, making it a cause of particular alarm.
Related articles

* Jeremy Laurance: The real danger of flu is a failure to be vigilant

No other similar reports of deaths linked with swine flu have been received from elsewhere in Europe. Official figures show GP consultations for flu-like illness in England were at 13.3 per 100,000 population last week, well below baseline levels.

Flu experts expressed surprise at the relatively high incidence of deaths and severe illness in the context of the low consultation rates. John Watson, head of respiratory diseases at the Health Protection Agency, said: "We seem to be in the vanguard on this. Other European countries are just beginning to see some H1N1 activity."

Calls to NHS Direct and other indicators show there is "quite a lot" of H1N1 swine flu about, despite the low GP consultation rate.

Around 30 per cent of those who fell ill, went to their GP and got tested for the virus, were coming up positive for H1N1, which was a high rate. Flu was very difficult to predict, Dr Watson added. "I am a little surprised to see as much activity as we seem to be seeing – both in terms of its spread in the community and its severity. I don't see it as being extraordinary but it is more than I would have expected."

All parts of the country are affected with deaths reported from each region, according to the HPA. There were nine flu outbreaks last week, eight in schools and one in an army barracks in Yorkshire.

Pressure has been building on intensive care in recent days with the worst affected patients treated on Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) machines which bypass the lungs to artificially oxygenate the blood. "A good many intensive care units are seeing severely ill cases including some using ECMO beds," Dr Watson said.

Swine flu arrived last year from Mexico creating the first flu pandemic for 40 years. In the UK, the first wave of the pandemic struck in the summer - unusually for flu – followed by a second smaller wave before Christmas.

Dr Watson said: "A lot of people were infected through the two waves of the last pandemic. We estimate something like two-thirds of children and a half of adults are likely to have been infected even though they may have had no symptoms.

"We wouldn't anticipate a big epidemic wave of flu activity due to H1N1 this year. "But there are still a substantial number of people who remain susceptible."

Many who caught swine flu last year suffered only minor illness but a small number were severely ill. There were 494 deaths in the year to April 2010.

The fear among flu experts is that the virus could mutate to cause more severe illness or target a different section of the population such as the elderly who are more vulnerable.

But laboratory analysis has shown that the circulating strain of the virus is "very much the same" as last year and has not shown "any significant change", according to the HPA.

Five of the 10 adults who died for whom information was available had not received the flu vaccine, the HPA said. National figures show vaccination rates are lower than in previous years covering 66 per cent of the over-65s and 40 per cent of younger adults at risk (pregnant women and those with chronic diseases such as asthma).

Professor David Salisbury, director of immunisation at the Department of Health said: "These figures demonstrate that the effects of flu are not to be underestimated. It is not the same as getting a cold and can seriously affect your health.

"The seasonal flu jab protects against the dominant strains – this year it protects against three types of flu, including the type known as swine flu. If you are in a risk group, then I would urge you to visit your GP surgery and get the vaccination as soon as possible. It is not too late to get vaccinated for your protection and that of your family."

In addition to H1N1 swine flu, which has become the dominant Influenza A virus in Britain, about 40 per cent of virus strains isolated this winter are Influenza B, which is most common in children, causes mostly mild illness, and has been responsible for several outbreaks in schools in recent weeks.

The last year in which it caused widespread illness was 2005-6. "There is plenty of B about," Dr Watson said.

How do you know if you have swine flu?

*Symptoms of swine flu are much the same as those of ordinary flu but with a tendency to be a little more severe, especially when there is vomiting or diarrhoea.

*Having a high temperature – over 100.4F (38C) – along with two or more other symptoms, is one of the indicators that swine flu is present.

*Other symptoms are a mixture of unusual tiredness, a headache, a runny nose, a sore throat, shortness of breath or a cough, loss of appetite, aching muscles, diarrhoea and vomiting. If you are concerned, the NHS recommends asking a GP for advice.

*For most people, swine flu is a mild illness and the advice is to stay at home, to rest, drink plenty of water and take over-the-counter flu remedies to alleviate the symptoms.

*For a small minority it can develop into a more serious illness and the complications that set in tend to affect the lungs

*Pneumonia is one of the most obvious complications.

*People who are considered to be at high risk of suffering serious illness if they go down with swine flu include patients who already have severe health problems. Among them are chronic heart, liver, lung and kidney conditions, neurological disorders such as chronic fatigue syndrome, Parkinson's Disease and multiple schlerosis. Diabetes also increases risk as does immuno-suppression, whether it is caused by an illness or by treatment.

Further groups classified as being at higher risk include pregnant women, children under five, the over-65s and asthma patients.

The NHS recommends people in high risk groups have the 2010-11 seasonal flu vaccination to protect them against swine flu.
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Old 11-12-10, 04:52 AM
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Study blames faulty immune response for severe H1N1 in adults

Robert Roos * News Editor

CIDRAP >> Study blames faulty immune response for severe H1N1 in adults

Dec 9, 2010 (CIDRAP News) – A team of US and Argentine researchers has proposed an unusual biological mechanism to explain severe pandemic H1N1 influenza cases in nonelderly adults, involving antibodies that react with but fail to stop the virus.

The scientists, from Vanderbilt University in Nashville and several institutions in Buenos Aires, say that the antibody response in some middle-aged adults, shaped by previous exposures to influenza, not only failed to block the new virus but also made things worse by activating the complement system, leading to a damaging accumulation of proteins in the lungs.

The researchers arrived at their conclusions by analyzing and comparing samples from adults and children infected with the pandemic H1N1 virus and with recent seasonal flu viruses and by studying archived samples from patients in the 1957 flu pandemic. They reported their findings this week in Nature Medicine.

The scientists, led by senior author Fernando P. Polack, say their observations "provide a previously unknown biological mechanism for the unusual age distribution of severe cases during influenza pandemics."

Younger adults hit hard
The burden of severe and fatal 2009 H1N1 cases fell most heavily on nonelderly adults, while the elderly were relatively spared, and young children had milder disease, the authors note. The elderly were believed to be protected because of their exposure before 1957 to H1N1 viruses related to the 2009 H1N1 strain.

A possible part of the explanation for this age pattern, the authors write, is that in the nonelderly adults, "an antibody repertoire shaped by seasonal infections may recognize but fail to neutralize the new pandemic strain, leading to immune complex–mediated disease." (Immune complexes are antibodies bound to antigens).

To test the hypothesis, the researchers studied respiratory and blood samples from 75 adults with pandemic H1N1 infections, including 21 outpatients and 54 who were hospitalized, with a median age of 39. Twenty-three of the patients died, and 15 of those who survived needed intensive care. Also studied were samples from infants and young children who had pandemic H1N1 and from adults hospitalized with seasonal flu infections in 2007 and 2008.

The investigators also examined the lungs of H1N1 patients who died, and found evidence of hemorrhaging, swelling of the alveoli, and other kinds of damage.

Incompetent antibodies
The scientists found antibodies to the pandemic virus in both elderly and nonelderly adults, but antibody "avidity" for the virus was lower in the younger adults, and this group lacked sufficient levels of antibody to neutralize the virus, the report says. The younger adults' antibodies had a greater ability to bind to an earlier (1999) seasonal H1N strain than to the 2009 virus. Further, severely ill patients had antibodies with lower avidity for the 2009 virus than did mildly ill patients.

In light of the role of nonprotective antibody responses in certain other diseases, such as respiratory syncytial virus, the authors examined lung sections for a complement system protein called C4d. The complement system, part of the innate immune system, consists of a number of proteins that circulate in the blood and, when triggered by any of various factors, initiate a cascade of events that help antibodies clear pathogens from the system.

"We detected extensive C4d deposition in bronchioles of individuals infected with 2009 H1N1, matching the distribution in immune complex mediated diseases due to other viruses," the report says. In contrast, the team found only traces of C4d in the lungs of persons who had seasonal flu.

The scientists also examined archived lung sections from adults who died in Tennessee during the H2N2 flu pandemic of 1957. They found C4d deposition in and around the bronchioles. As a control, they also looked at an archived sample from a person who had no lung infection, and found no C4d.

No cytokine storm
In other steps, the researchers examined their samples for evidence of "cytokine storm"—an immune-mediated outpouring of chemical messengers that triggers intense lung inflammation. Cytokine storm has been suggested as a cause of or contributor to death from influenza.

The team found little evidence of cytokine storm, with "low cytokine concentrations" in secretions from pandemic H1N1 patients. For example, samples from pandemic and seasonal flu patients had similar amounts of such cytokines as tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-10, and IL-12.

"Taken together, these observations indicate that 2009 H1N1 influenza virus leads to immune complex–mediated disease in adults through high titers of low-avidity nonprotective antibody and immune complex–mediated complement activation in the respiratory tract," the report states.

"Immune complex–mediated disease also contributed to fatal cases cause by 1957 H2N2 pandemic influenza. We speculate that this phenomenon contributes to severe symptoms in the middle-aged adult population during all pandemics," it adds.

Findings called intriguing
Vincent Racaniello, PhD, a virologist at Columbia University and author of Virology Blog, said he found the report "intriguing." Racaniello, who is Higgins professor in Columbia's Department of Microbiology and Immunology, was not involved in the study.

"I have always wondered if immune-complex disease is a component in influenza, as it is in respiratory syncytial virus and dengue virus infections," he commented by e-mail. "In particular, non-neutralizing antibodies are believed to lead to severe dengue disease during second infections with a different serotype.

"In this case, non-neutralized virus-antibody complexes appear to lead to deposition of complement, which causes tissue damage. This is not a cytokine storm; in fact the authors found no evidence for such in the lungs of victims of severe H1N1 disease."

To substantiate the authors' hypothesis, it will be important to identify, in patients previously exposed to flu, antibodies that bind to but fail to neutralize a new flu strain, Racaniello said.

"These observations make it even more compelling to immunize against pandemic strains. Presumably this would lower virus load and prevent deposition of immune complexes," he added. "In this vein the authors note that they have not determined whether there is also a contribution of direct viral injury to severe disease, an important point."

Racaniello said the findings imply that severe flu cases could be treated by disrupting immune complexes or interfering with the complement system. "Perhaps a better approach is to produce universal influenza vaccines, which would neutralize any strain, thus eliminating the pathogenic problem of non-neutralizing antibodies," he added.

Monsalvo AC, Batalle JP, Lopez MR, et al. Severe pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza disease due to pathogenic immune complexes. Nature Med 2010; early online publication Dec 5 [Abstract]

See also:

Apr 23 CIDRAP News report on lessons of the 2009 pandemic
CIDRAP >> H1N1 LESSONS LEARNED<br>Pandemic underscored influenza's unpredictability
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"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

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Old 15-12-10, 03:10 AM
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14 December 2010 Last updated at 08:17 ET

Swine flu cases confirmed at Cardiff independent school
The Cathedral School, Llandaff, Cardiff There are 650 pupils at the Cathedral School in Cardiff

BBC News - Swine flu cases confirmed at Cardiff independent school

Health officials are investigating a high number of cases of flu, including swine flu, at a school in Cardiff.

More than 120 cases of sickness absence have been recorded at the independent Llandaff Cathedral School in the last two weeks.

Headmaster Stephen Morris said there was a "high number" of pupils ill.

Of a sample of six tested, three were confirmed as having the H1N1 - or swine flu - virus. However, health officials stressed there was no need to panic.

"Over 120 cases of sickness absence have been recorded in the school in the last two weeks, not all of which are associated with influenza like illness," added Mr Morris.

Public Health Wales is investigating the illness at the mixed-sex school which has 650 pupils and caters for students aged three to 18.
Continue reading the main story
BASIC HYGIENE ADVICE

* Cover your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when possible
* Dispose of dirty tissues promptly and carefully
* Maintain good basic hygiene, for example washing hands frequently with soap and water
* Clean hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) frequently using a normal cleaning product
* Source: Public Health Wales

Dr Gwen Lowe, consultant in communicable disease control, said: "In order to prevent further spread of this illness parents should not send their children to school if symptomatic, and keep them away until recovered.

"Symptomatic individuals should also be excluded from school attendance for any other events including cathedral services, concerts and other performances."

Laboratory testing were conducted on a sample of cases associated with the school.

These tests confirm that Influenza A (H1N1), also known as swine flu, is circulating in the school.

Health officials said doctors now have vaccines for swine flu and anyone particularly vulnerable can get treated.

There no other known clusters at this time.
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An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
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Old 15-12-10, 03:14 AM
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UK sees rise in 2009 H1N1 activity
A recent increase in 2009 H1N1 and influenza B circulation in the United Kingdom has triggered a public health warning for pregnant women and other groups at high risk for flu complications to be immunized. In a statement today from the UK's Health Protection Agency (HPA), Dr John Watson, an HPA flu expert, said alongside the uptick in flu cases over the last few weeks the agency has received reports of hospitalized patients and school outbreaks. According to a Dec 11 Reuters report, the HPA has received reports of 10 flu deaths. In other UK flu developments, the HPA said the Department of Health has issued new guidance saying that antivirals should be prescribed, ideally within 48 hours, when people with underlying medical conditions, including pregnancy, have flu infections. The guidance applies when evidence suggests that flu is circulating in the community. It notes that in some instances antivirals are appropriate for preventing flu, but stipulates that prophylactic use in healthy people under age 65 is not recommended.
Dec 13 HPA statement
Dec 11 Reuters story
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Old 21-12-10, 12:30 AM
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Eurosurveillance, Volume 15, Issue 50, 16 December 2010
News
Start of the influenza season 2010-11 in Europe dominated by 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus
Influenza Team ()1
  1. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
Citation style for this article: Influenza Team. Start of the influenza season 2010-11 in Europe dominated by 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus. Euro Surveill. 2010;15(50)ii=19753. Available online: Eurosurveillance - View Article
Date of submission:

The influenza season 2010-11 in Europe has started with increasing transmission in 11 countries [1]. The currently circulating strains are predominantly the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) and influenza B viruses [1], strains that are included in the current trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. The United Kingdom (UK), so far the most affected country, has seen a number of outbreaks. Although the majority of cases in the UK are mild, a significant number of severe hospitalised cases and several deaths have occurred, some in patients belonging to risk groups, including pregnant women [2]. This has resulted in an increased demand of intensive care treatment and respiratory support including extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Most patients are under 65 years of age.
In the past epidemics have most often progressed from west to east in Europe [3]. There is a rapidly closing window of time during which public health and clinical interventions can mitigate the impact of this season's influenza epidemics on morbidity and mortality. Countries should be prepared for increased demand for healthcare assistance and promote early sample collection and testing for patients with influenza-like-illness.
Influenza vaccination with the 2010 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine is the most effective prevention measure and is recommended in particular for those at risk of developing severe disease [4]. There is strong evidence suggesting that the A(H1N1) component of the seasonal vaccine will be highly effective against influenza-like illness caused by the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus. Good protection was achieved as early as eight days after vaccination [5].
Early use of antiviral drugs for individuals belonging to risk groups will also be of value. The currently circulating variant can be expected to be sensitive to oseltamivir and zanamivir, as the old oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1) virus has been displaced by the pandemic strain and very few viruses so far have been reported as being resistant [6]. However, isolates should be monitored for the emergence of antiviral resistance, particularly in immunocompromised patients.
References
  1. Weekly influenza surveillance overview. Stockholm: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 10 December 2010. Available from: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication...e_Overview.pdf
  2. HPA Weekly National Influenza Report - week 49. London: Health Protection Agency; 9 December 2010. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile.../1287146267647
  3. The 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in Europe. Stockholm: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2010.; Available from: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publica...experience.pdf
  4. Start of the Influenza season 2010/11 in Europe – severe influenza cases in the UK. Stockholm: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2010 December 15. Available from: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/activit...ECDC%20Reviews
  5. Kissling E, Valenciano M, Moren A, Ciancio B. Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009–10: results of the I-MOVE multicentre case-control study. European Scientific Conference on Applied Infectious Disease Epidemiology; 2010; Lisbon. Abs N 43. Available from: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/ESCAIDE/ESC...05_Ciancio.pdf
  6. Global Alert and Response. Influenza update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2010 December 2. Available from: WHO | Influenza update - 3 December 2010
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"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

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Old 26-12-10, 07:14 PM
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H1N1 Death Cluster In Leicestershire UK Raises Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 17:20
December 24, 2010

H1N1 Death Cluster In Leicestershire UK Raises Concerns

Tests are being carried out to see if a number of people, including young children, have died from flu or respiratory disease.

It has been reported that three adults have died from swine flu and six children aged under five have died from viral respiratory diseases in Leicestershire in the past few weeks.

NHS managers refused to comment on the numbers until they have the results of laboratory tests to confirm the causes of death.


The above comments describe an H1N1 death cluster at Leicestershire, UK. However, since the cases have not been lab confirmed, they are not included in the HPA fatality list, which is a gross under-estimate. It is likely that similar unreported H1N1 deaths are widespread in the UK, s Since H1N1 is treatable with anti-virals, and treatment is most effective when started within 48 hours of symptoms, it is likely that many cases are tested and found to be positive, but unreported because cause of death has not been “verified”. Similarly, positives are also likely to be a gross under-estimate because the rapid test for H1N1 has a very low sensitivity (as low as 10%, which means that 90% of H1N1 infected cases test negative).

The recent report of 460 ICU cases, which are largely from H1N1, has sounded alarm bells because of the rapid rise in such cases (302 were reported three days earlier) and the limited ECMO capacity (which were severely taxed last season when only 180 patients were in ICU beds).

Thus, the true magnitude of the current and growing problem is not well understood by the general population, where vaccination rates are low, and mixed messages on “normal” flu deaths continue to misinform.
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Old 26-12-10, 07:15 PM
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Fatal H1N1 In Previously Healthy Young Adults In UK
Recombinomics Commentary 01:10
December 25, 2010
The figures have risen by 10 in a week. Of those who died, 24 had swine flu and three were suffering from another strain, flu type B, the Health Protection Agency said.

Nine of the victims were children. The HPA would not say if any of the deaths were among pregnant women because of worries over identification.

Almost half the fatalities were in the “at risk” group, meaning they were eligible for vaccination.

One victim had been vaccinated. But the HPA said this was not unusual as the vaccine is only 70 to 80 per cent effective.

The above comment on fatal H1N1 cases notes that most were not in the “at risk” group, i.e. were previously healthy young adults. This characterization is in marked contrast to comments from last season where more fatal cases were in a broadly defined “at risk” group. Last year one study of 34 fatal H1N1 cases in New York found that 91% were in the at risk group, largely because of obesity.

The high number of previously healthy young adults who are fatally infected with H1N1, as well as the dramatic spike in severe cases who occupy the vast majority of the 460 intensive care beds with patients with flu-like conditions in the UK, indicate the virus has changed, which is supported by sequence analysis and recombination in recently released data by the Health Protection Agency.

The high frequency of deaths in healthy adults is being largely ignored by the media, and agencies are discussing increasing the vaccination rate in the at risk population (currently at 43%), and not stating the abysmal rate in the healthy population, who are clearly at risk for fatal H1N1 infections this season in the UK.

The spike in severe H1N1 is straining the health care delivery, including ECMO treatment of critical patients, which is not helped by the low vaccination uptake in the under 65 “at risk” group, and the lower uptake in healthy young adults in the UK.

Information on the low vaccination rate in healthy young adults and plans to correct this serious situation would be useful.
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Old 26-12-10, 10:17 PM
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24 December 2010 Last updated at 09:14 ET

Global flu warning after UK hit

BBC News - Global flu warning after UK hit

Northern hemisphere countries are being told by health experts to brace themselves for flu outbreaks.

There has been a well-publicised surge of cases in the UK during December with swine flu appearing to be the dominant of the three strains circulating.

But the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned much of the rest of Europe was also beginning to see increases too.

Meanwhile, parts of the US and Canada have reported higher levels.

Many of those being infected are younger age groups. This is because elderly people have some immunity to swine flu, most probably because of exposure to a similar strain many years ago.

In the UK, the number of people who have died with all types of flu this winter hit 27 this week after another 10 deaths.

The volume of patients going to their doctor with flu-like illnesses also rose, more than doubling to 87.1 per 100,000 in the past week.
Children

Cases have been highest in children aged between five and 14, followed by children under four and then those aged between 15 and 44.

But the UK's Health Protection Agency (HPA) said a very large outbreak was "not likely".

The situation has led to a rise in patients in intensive care beds and also in those using the NHS's phone hotline, NHS Direct.

Health experts said most people with flu would be able to "self-care" by taking plenty of rest, drinking fluids and taking pain relief.

However, those with severe symptoms are being advised to consult their doctor.

Professor John Watson, an expert in respiratory disease at the HPA, said: "The level of flu activity we are currently seeing is at levels often seen during the winter flu seasons.

"Recent research conducted by the HPA has suggested that a very substantial wave of activity associated with the pandemic strain is not likely."

In the UK at-risk groups are being urged to come forward for vaccinations. The numbers getting immunised are still too low, doctors have said.

The rates being seen elsewhere in Europe are not as high as in the UK, but the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said there was evidence that the winter flu epidemics were "starting".

Russia and the Ukraine are thought to be the worst hit outside the UK.
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"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
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Old 27-12-10, 06:59 PM
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Swine flu epidemic fear as hospital admissions soar by 250% in a week

By Jo Macfarlane
Last updated at 11:35 AM on 27th December 2010

Swine flu epidemic fear as hospital admissions soar by 250 per cent in a week | Mail Online

Fears of a swine flu epidemic have grown after figures revealed the number of seriously ill patients being treated in hospital for influenza has surged by 250 per cent in a week in the worst outbreak for 20 years.

Eighteen adults and nine children have died from flu this winter.

Some hospital trusts are starting to cancel operations to leave beds empty to make way for a surge in flu cases, with one leading Department of Health official warning of potential shortages in the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

The Department of Health figures reveal the extent of the worsening crisis and show that the number of critical care beds being used by flu patients has risen by more than
half in three days.

On Friday, the Government confirmed there were 460 patients with suspected or confirmed flu in hos¬pitals across England, compared with 302 on Tuesday and 182 at the end of last week.

Normally the worst cases of flu are seen in those over the age of 65. But the vast majority this year, 366, are patients aged between 16 and 64, while 43 are children, with 26 below the age of five.

It is not known how many of these cases are swine flu, but the virus is the dominant flu strain this winter and it is expected that most will have the H1N1 virus.

The Health Protection Agency has said that so far this winter, nine children and 18 adults have died of flu. However, the official figures represent a small proportion of cases being treated in hospital because data is not collected on the number of flu patients on ordinary wards.

Doctors have described the stark increase in cases as unprecedented, with some calling it the worst flu outbreak for more than two decades.

Experts have warned the situation will get worse. The country’s leading virologist, Professor John Oxford, said: ‘I wish I could be optimistic about this outbreak,
but I have an uneasy, restless feeling.

'Swine flu is the biggest virus on the block and there are plenty of people still to infect.’

Shadow Health Secretary John Healey blamed Health Secretary Andrew Lansley for worsening the crisis by failing to advertise the seasonal flu vaccine, which offers protection against swine flu.

‘The Health Secretary made the wrong judgment, which has left many people without the flu pro¬tection they should have,’ said Mr Healey.

‘He should authorise an immediate campaign to encourage those most at risk to get the jab.’

Some intensive care wards, and particularly those for children, are already reaching full capacity.

The NHS in England has about 3,500 critical care beds and some trusts are cancelling operations to make way for a surge in flu cases.

Consultant cardiothoracic surgeon Richard Firmin, of Leicester’s Glenfield Hospital, said: ‘If the numbers in intensive care keep going up, we’ll need further capacity and we’re running very close to the edge.’

Meanwhile, the Department of Health’s chief pharmaceutical officer, Dr Keith Ridge, has warned of potential shortages in the antiviral drug Tamiflu because of the Government’s decision to allow GPs to prescribe the drug to all people with flu-like symptoms, rather than those only in at-risk groups.

In a letter to pharmacists, Dr Ridge said wholesalers were rationing supplies and urged pharmacists not to over-order.

Andrew Lansley described the rise in cases as a ‘significant increase’ but insisted the NHS was responding well to the crisis.

He said: ‘We will continue to monitor the situation and respond as necessary.’
Out of danger: Pregnant mother Fallon Devaney and her four children

Out of danger: Pregnant mother Fallon Devaney and her four children

*Pregnant mother Fallon Devaney, 25, who was fighting for her life after being struck by swine flu, has been taken out of intensive care.

Staff at the Queen’s Medical Centre in Nottingham, where the mother of four is recovering, said last night that her condition was stable and her unborn baby was out of danger.

Mrs Devaney’s mother Linda, 45, said: ‘It’s the best Christmas present we’ve ever
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Old 27-12-10, 07:04 PM
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Flu epidemic fears as deaths rise

Flu-like illnesses and the intense cold weather have caused a sudden rise in the number of deaths this winter.

Tim Ross, Social Affairs Editor 11:27AM GMT 27 Dec 2010

Flu epidemic fears as deaths rise - Telegraph

Between Dec 6 and 12, an estimated 11,193 people died in England and Wales, above the expected maximum for the time of year and almost 2,000 more deaths than the previous week. Health officials blamed icy weather and respiratory viruses, including flu, for the 21 per cent increase in the death rate.

The extra 1,973 deaths emerged in the Health Protection Agency's latest report on the spread of flu this winter, which some experts fear is already on course to become an epidemic.

Flu is often implicated in winter deaths because it can cause complications such as pneumonia. But relatively few death certificates mention it as a cause, according to official reports.

The Health Protection Agency's latest weekly influenza report said: "In week 49, an estimated 11,193 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales, an increase from the previous week and now above the upper limit of expected levels for this time of year. Potential factors for this increase include recent cold weather and circulating respiratory viruses."

During the previous week, 9,220 people in England and Wales died from all causes, which was within the expected range for the time of year. The week before – between Nov 22 and 28 – 9,473 died.

A spokesman for the Department of Health said: "Across government we are working on our cold weather plans which are supported by our pledge to retain the winter fuel allowance, which will help people to keep homes warm.

"We have turned the temporary increase in the cold weather payments, introduced by the last government, into a permanent increase."

There are fears that this winter will see a rise in flu-related deaths because the take up of vaccines has been lower than in the past. There have been 27 deaths so far from flu since the autumn.

An epidemic is technically under way when there are more than 200 GP consultations for the influenza virus per 100,000 of the population.

HPA figures showed this level had almost been reached already among children, with the number of flu cases among five to 14-year-olds rising from 58 to 160 per 100,000 in the week to Dec 19.
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