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Old 23-11-10, 01:32 PM
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Default North Korean dictator-in-waiting orders deadly artillery attack

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North Korean dictator-in-waiting orders deadly artillery attack
John Garnaut HERALD CORRESPONDENT
November 24, 2010

North Korean dictator-in-waiting orders deadly artillery attack

Flashpoint . . . smoke billows from houses on Yeonpyeong island after the North Korean artillery barrage. Photo: AFP

NORTH KOREA'S 26-year-old dictator-in-waiting has burnished his leadership credentials with a deadly artillery attack on South Korean territory, causing its neighbour to return fire and scramble F-16 fighters.

Two South Korean marines died, and at least 12 were wounded. There were reports of civilian injuries and houses were set ablaze as scores of shells fell on Yeonpyeong island.

A North Korea expert at Beijing's Central Party School, Zhang Liangui, told the Herald that Kim Jong-un was deliberately destabilising the environment in order to mobilise the military and consolidate his power.
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The South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, held an emergency meeting and told officials to ''respond sternly'' but to avoid aggravating the situation. The military were placed on high alert.

North Korea accused South Korea of firing first. ''The South Korean enemy, despite our repeated warnings, committed reckless military provocations of firing artillery shells into our maritime territory near Yeonpyeong island,'' the military supreme command said.

The north's military ''will continue to make merciless military attacks with no hesitation if the South Korean enemy dares to invade our sea territory by 0.001 mm'', it said in the statement carried by the official news agency. ''It is our military's traditional response to quell provocative actions with a merciless thunderbolt.''

There have been previous skirmishes along the border - including the deaths of 46 South Korean sailors when the corvette Cheonan was torpedoed on March 26 - but the stakes are getting higher.

The exchange follows the revelation last week of a hitherto unknown North Korean uranium enrichment plant to a visiting US scientist. Siegfried Hecker, who previously directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, told The New York Times he had been ''stunned'' by the plant's sophistication. North Korea said it was operating 2000 centrifuges.

If verified, this would take Pyongyang towards creating a far more powerful arsenal than the estimated eight to 12 plutonium-based warheads that have been built over the past five years.

The US special representative for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, arrived in Beijing last night to brief officials on North Korea's new enrichment facilities.

Chinese North Korea specialists believe the brinkmanship is designed to mobilise the country around the anointed successor of Kim Jong-il, his son Kim Jong-un.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed ''concern'' at yesterday's attack and warned against further escalation. He said it was ''imperative'' that six-nation talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions be resumed.

A French diplomatic source said the United Nations Security Council would hold an emergency session.

The White House said it was ''firmly committed to the defence'' of its ally, Seoul.

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, was briefed on the situation last night. She condemned the attack and said Australia was consulting closely with South Korea, Japan and the US.

Professor Zhang said the latest incident was unlikely to escalate because the North was mainly ''venting anger''.

Beyond the succession, he said the North wanted concessions from the South and to be acknowledged internationally as a nuclear state.
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Old 23-11-10, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Professor Zhang said the latest incident was unlikely to escalate because the North was mainly ''venting anger''.
Oh that's OK then

F
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Old 23-11-10, 01:37 PM
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North and South Korea Exchange Fire, Killing Two
By MARK McDONALD

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/wo...gewanted=print

SEOUL, South Korea — North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire on Tuesday after dozens of shells fired from the North struck a South Korean island near the countries’ disputed maritime border, South Korean military officials said. Two South Korean soldiers were killed, 15 were wounded and three civilians were injured, said Kiyheon Kwon, an official at the Defense Ministry.

The South Korean military went to “crisis status,” and fighter planes were put on alert but did not take off.

South Korean artillery units returned fire after the North’s shells struck South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island at 2:34 p.m., said Mr. Kwon, adding that the North also fired numerous rounds into the Yellow Sea. Television footage showed large plumes of black smoke spiraling from the island, and news reports said dozens of houses were on fire.

The official North Korean news agency said in a brief statement Tuesday night that the South had started the fight when it “recklessly fired into our sea area.”

The South Korean deputy minister of defense, Lee Yong-geul, acknowledged that artillery units had been firing test shots on Tuesday afternoon close to the North Korean coast, from a battery on the South Korean island of Paeknyeongdo. But he denied Pyongyang’s charge that the shots had crossed the sea border.While skirmishes between the two countries have not been uncommon in recent years, the clash appeared to have been the most serious in decades and came amid heightened tensions over the North’s nuclear program. An American nuclear scientist who recently visited the North said he had been shown a secret and modern enrichment facility.

A spokesman for President Lee Myung-bak said Mr. Lee gathered his security-related ministers and senior aides at a crisis meeting in the underground situation room at the Blue House, the presidential office and residence.

“We will not in any way tolerate this,” Mr. Lee’s chief spokesman, Hong Sang-pyo, said after the meeting. “Any further provocation will get an immediate and strong response and the South Korean military will strongly retaliate if there is anything further.”

The United States condemned the attack and called on North Korea to “halt its belligerent action,” the White House said in a statement.

The attack on the island came as 70,000 South Korean troops were beginning an annual nationwide military drill called Safeguarding the Nation. The exercise has been sharply criticized by Pyongyang as “simulating an invasion of the North” and “a means to provoke a war.” The drill includes some United States forces, but a defense official said no American military personnel were on the island when it was hit.

A spokeswoman for the Unification Ministry in Seoul said Tuesday night that the South Korean Red Cross had indefinitely postponed a Thursday meeting with North Korean officials on further reunions between family members separated since the Korean War. She also said the ministry was “reviewing the security situation” for several hundred South Korean workers at the Kaesong Industrial Park, a jointly operated facility in North Korea.

The shelling also followed revelations of two new nuclear facilities in the North — a light water reactor under construction and a modern plant for enriching uranium that Pyongyang says is operational.

Yeonpyeong Island sits just two miles from the Northern Limit Line, the disputed sea border which the North does not recognize, and only eight miles from the North Korean coast. The island houses a garrison of about 1,000 South Korean marines, and the navy has deployed its newest class of “patrol killer” guided-missile ships in the Western Sea, as the Yellow Sea is also known.

About 1,600 civilians also live on the island, mostly fishermen, and local news reports said by late afternoon that some residents had fled the island on fishing boats.

In March, a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, was sunk in the area and 46 sailors died. The incident badly frayed inter-Korean relations and Seoul blamed the sinking on a North Korean torpedo attack. The North has denied any role in incident.

In August, North Korea fired 110 artillery rounds near Yeonpyeong and another South Korean island, the Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said at the time.

Three weeks ago, the South Korean Navy fired warning shots at a North Korean fishing boat after the vessel strayed across the Northern Limit Line. The North Korean boat then reportedly retreated.

Previous naval skirmishes occurred in the western sea in 1999 and 2002.

Reaction from governments involved in the six-party talks to the escalation of violence was swift.

The Russian Foreign Ministry urged restraint and a non-military resolution, while the British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned the “unprovoked attack” and urged Pyongyang to refrain from hostilities.

Chinese officials said they were “concerned” and called on both sides to resume six-party talks. “We hope the relevant the parties will do more to contribute to the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, said at a regular briefing in Beijing.

Officials gave the impression, however, that China was in the dark about the attacks. “The situation needs to be verified,” Mr. Hong said, adding that “China is willing to stay close communication with the relevant parties concerning the Korean nuclear issue.”

The Japanese government called North Korea's actions "unforgivable," Reuters reported.

The shelling came just days after an American nuclear scientist who visited North Korea earlier this month said he had been shown a vast new facility built secretly and rapidly to enrich uranium.

The scientist, Siegfried S. Hecker, a Stanford professor who previously directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, said in an interview that he had been “stunned” by the sophistication of the new plant, where he saw “hundreds and hundreds” of centrifuges that had just been installed in a recently gutted building and operated from what he called “an ultra-modern control room.” The North Koreans claimed 2,000 centrifuges were already installed and running, he said.

The development confronted the Obama administration with the prospect that North Korea country is preparing to expand its nuclear arsenal or build a far more powerful type of atomic bomb.

Whether the calculated revelation is a negotiating ploy by North Korea or a signal that it plans to accelerate its weapons program even as it goes through a perilous leadership change, it creates a new challenge for President Obama at a moment when his program for gradual, global nuclear disarmament appears imperiled at home and abroad.

Analysts were quick to see the shelling as a deliberate North Korean provocation.

“Deliberate, yes, and it’s a sign of North Korea’s increasing frustration,” said Choi Jin-wook, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a research institute in Seoul.

“Washington has turned a deaf ear to Pyongyang and North Korea is saying, “Look here. We’re still alive. We can cause trouble. You can’t ignore us.”

Mr. Choi said North Korea had become frustrated over the Obama administration’s refusal to remove a broad range of sanctions against the regime for its continuing nuclear efforts.

“They see that they can’t pressure Washington,” he said, “so they’ve taken South Korea hostage again.”

Mr. Choi said North Korea’s first and most urgent priority is for food aid, which has been largely denied by South Korea and strangled by international and United States sanctions.

“They’re in a desperate situation and they want food immediately, not next year,” he said.

“I can’t think of recent event in the past five or 10 years that approaches this magnitude,” said John Swenson-Wright, an expert with the Royal Institute for International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, a private policy organization in London. “Symbolically and practically, this is a serious escalation in provocation,” he said in a telephone interview.

Tuesday’s exchange is the sharpest clash since the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, in September positioned his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor to lead the secretive nation. The younger Mr. Kim was promoted on Sept. 28 to the rank of four-star general, a prerequisite for his ascendancy to power. The elder Mr. Kim, who is said to be in poor health after apparently suffering a stroke in 2008, has hurried the succession of Kim Jong-un in recent weeks.

But he Mr. Choi did not see Kim Jong-un’s hand in Tuesday’s attack.

“He is probably not part of this,” he said. “This is not a game for young boys.”

Other members of the Kim family and the leader’s inner circle also received new posts and promotions as the leadership hierarchy was reshuffled to provide Kim Jong-un with mentors and supporters as he solidifies his power.

Su-hyun Lee contributed reporting from Seoul, Kevin Drew from Hong Kong, Alan Cowell from Paris, Ian Johnson from Beijing, and Clifford J. Levy from Moscow.
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Old 24-11-10, 04:33 AM
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This is what is happening.

Two years ago, North Korea withdrew from the 6-countries negotiations, because at that time, true commitments would have to be made, which they didn't have (and still don't have) any intention on making.

In the meantime, China, their only "friend" among the 6 powers, is putting pressure on them to return to the negotiations, and as of this summer, North Korea actually wanted to do so ... but by now, South Korea and the U.S. don't seem eager any longer to return to the negotiating table, at least not, without North Korea offering concrete commitments up front.

With yesterday's incident, North Korea is putting pressure on the U.S. and South Korea to return to the negotiations without prior commitments by demonstrating to them, how dangerous it could be if they don't.

It's thus all power games ... but indeed, this can misfire. It is clearly the most serious incident since the end of the Korea war, as for the first time, North Korea has been targeting populated areas, i.e., the civil population of South Korea.
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Old 24-11-10, 05:28 AM
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S.Korea says North fired 170 shells in act of ’savagery’

SEOUL, (AFP) - North Korea fired about 170 artillery shells into South Korean territory including 80 that struck a border island and burnt down 19 homes, the defence ministry in Seoul said Wednesday.

The bombardment killed two marines and wounded 15 others plus three civilians in one of the worst incidents since the Korean war, sparking outrage in the South and worldwide condemnation of Pyongyang.

Prime Minister Kim Hwang-Sik described the shelling of Yeonpyeong island as a "reckless act of savagery".

He told parliament it was a "premeditated, meticulously planned provocation" aimed at undermining the disputed Yellow Sea border drawn by the United Nations after the 1950-53 war.

Kim said the attack was also linked to a decision by the North’s leader Kim Jong-Il to designate his youngest son Jong-Un as eventual successor.

The North was trying "to brandish heir apparent Kim Jong-Un’s military prowess, strengthen internal unity and vent internal discontent toward the outside."

The South Korean and US military have raised a joint surveillance alert to its second-highest level, said defence ministry spokesman Lee Boong-Woo.

"There have been no additional provocations since yesterday," he told a briefing.

Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young had a 20-minute phone conversation with his US counterpart Robert Gates in which they assessed the situation and discussed joint responses and sharing of intelligence, the spokesman said.

"We, based on our overnight analysis, believe that about 170 shells were fired (by the North), including those from 120-mm multiple artillery and coastal artillery systems," the spokesman said.

The South responded with 80 shells from its self-propelled guns but damage or casualties in the North was unclear.


The North’s shells damaged 21 homes on the island, including 19 that were burned down.

Yonhap news agency, quoting defence ministry sources, said artillery on the North’s southwestern coast and long-range guns were maintaining a ready-to-fire posture.

It said MiG-23 jet fighters, which took off from their Bukchang base for reconnaissance missions near the border before the shelling, had been redeployed further south. They were now at Hwangju airbase.

The North also deployed ground-to-ship missiles and deployed warships in battle positions, Yonhap said.

Residents in the western port of Incheon and other cities near the border were stockpiling instant noodles, bottled water, canned food and other necessities, Yonhap reported.

The left-leaning opposition Democratic Party urged restraint on both sides.

"I urge the (Seoul) government to stick to the principle of pursuing a peaceful settlement of conflicts," party president Sohn Hak-Kyu said in a statement.

"It is undesirable to create a war-like atmosphere and cause anxieties among the people, thus undermining the economy."


Read more: S.Korea says North fired 170 shells in act of ?savagery?
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"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

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Old 24-11-10, 05:34 AM
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"Power games" indeed.

Very dangerous ones, the possibility of a miscalculation here is growing steadily month by month.

There will come a point when the machinery of conflict will start to run on it's own. At that point it may be almost impossible to stop the escalation, if only because the North's centralized control systems may fail at a critical go/no go point.

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Old 24-11-10, 07:18 AM
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Things are going to be very interesting the first 48hrs after Little Kim dies.
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Old 24-11-10, 09:21 AM
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Someone said that the same thing happened in the previous transition of power. They were also purges at the time and it seems this time around there might well be some purges again accompanying the transition.

Thus, it might also have been done for internal purposes.

Overall, while some people said that was the reason for the markets reacting lower, I am not convinced. With SK refusing to escalate and NK stopping pretty fast, it does feel like a petulant child throwing a tantrum and, after a bit of hue and cry, everything goes back to normal... (except for the 2 deads and the wounded).
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Old 24-11-10, 01:41 PM
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Full-scale war on Korean peninsula 'unlikely'

By Michael Edwards

Updated 20 minutes ago
Full-scale war on Korean peninsula 'unlikely' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

North Korea has accused Seoul of driving the peninsula to the brink of war by pursuing what Pyongyang calls a policy of confrontation.

Yesterday North Korea bombed South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing two marines and two civilians.

The prevailing analysis is that Kim Jong-il wants to send a message to Seoul that Pyongyang is the superpower on the Korean peninsula.

Experts say full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula is unlikely. But they do say that it remains an alarming possibility.

An expert on North Korea, Professor Peter Hayes from RMIT University, says yesterday's attack is evidence there is a new sense of confidence in Pyongyang.

"I think the reason, at least in part, is that [North Korea] feels it has a both compellent and deterrent capacity," he said.

"A compellent capacity in the sense that it can undertake conventional and nuclear operations to force South Korea to change its policies of hostility towards North Korea, which have come about in the last few years under the current president in South Korea, and deterrent in respect to the United States.

"In other words it can put a lid on any escalation that might come about because of its use of conventional force, because it is simply too dangerous to escalate for everyone, because you might end up in a nuclear war and now they have nuclear weapons which they didn't have."

Professor Hayes says North Korea's unveiling of its uranium enrichment plant has changed the dynamic on the Korean peninsula.

He says war could happen, but South Korea is likely to resist a full-scale military response for the time being.

"I actually think that they can absorb a lot of provocation because the risk of war," he said.

"Given that Seoul, which represents roughly 80 per cent of their economy, is within striking distance of artillery and rockets from North Korea means that we would have to see a lot more violence at this point before the South will be willing to actually conduct military operations against the North."

Professor Hayes does expect North Korea's main ally China to intervene.

"I think what is much more likely at this point is that we will see the great powers lean very heavily on each other and particularly on China, which is the main backer at this point both politically and economically of North Korea," he said.

"It will send a message to Pyongyang and this will probably be a military to military message between the Chinese PLA and the North Korean People's Army, that they simply can't go about business this way.

"That they will pull the plug and by pulling the plug I mean turn off the oil, which goes from a pipeline from China to North Korea. Without oil, the North Korean military actually can't run for much more than a month before they actually run out of fuel."

There is also speculation that the present run of provocations is designed to shore up support for Kim Jong-il's designated heir - his son Kim Jong-un.

Dr Leonid Petrov, an expert on North Asian politics from the University of Sydney, says there is concern is that the Kim family's nuclear legacy could provoke a wider arms race in the North Asian region.

"Not only in South Korean soil, but also it is a concern for China that Taiwan might go nuclear," he said.

"Even Japan might revise its constitutional prohibition of arms and army and nuclear position and might also decide to go ahead with nuclear programs - defensive nuclear programs, but still nuclear - and the whole region will turn into the big stockpile of nuclear weapons."
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Old 27-11-10, 04:52 PM
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The next few days will be interesting to watch.
The American carrier force will be in the area for joint exercises starting tomorrow and NK has been sabre rattling about it ever since the attack.
The Chinese are finally starting to move diplomatically but I'm not sure how successful they will be at defusing the situation.


F
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"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

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