Back to square one in Afghanistan

As polls on the ground show, Afghans know full well what their future holds – and it doesn't involve us


o Peter Preston
o guardian.co.uk, Sunday 18 July 2010 20.00 BST

Four more dead within a day, a surge of blood, not a trickle. And what do the people we're doing it for think as the corpse count mounts? We can – using proper polling techniques – ask 500 Afghan men in the Helmand and Kandahar killing zones. Wince as you hear their answers: 70% think that the military operation in their area is bad for local people; 68% believe Nato can't protect them; 59% don't want another big offensive; 61% believe that more are joining the Taliban now than a year ago; 74% reckon that working with international forces is wrong; oh, and 65% believe Mullah Omar should join the government.

That last finding, amid new International Council on Security and Development research, jars worst of all. Not just because it shows continuing support for bringing back the fanatics George W and Tony turfed out of office almost a decade ago. But because it reminds us how dismally we've failed to run any of our main "most wanted" to earth. No Osama, an intelligence embarrassment so grotesque that the CIA and assorted special forces should hang their heads in shame. But no Mullah Omar, either.

Harassed western alliance seeks erstwhile head of Taliban administration. Age: around 50. Height: tall. Eyes: one. He ran Afghanistan for five years until 2001, head of the supreme council, commander of the faithful. He's not some will o'the wisp. Yet all the special forces and CIA agents in the world can't contrive to lay a finger on him. If you see Omar, there's a $25m reward for turning him in. But nobody has and nobody does. Here's one more thing about the Taliban that fits with al-Qaida values. They are loyal, close and tight-lipped. Though the duplicitous Pakistani Inter-Services agency helped make and mould them, there's scant double-dealing in the way they fight now.

And if, at last, we're trying to be honest – trying not to be like politicians visiting our boys, talking endless conflict or early withdrawal according to taste – then it's time to forget about "victory" in any conventional form. Afghans, when they tick boxes for polling agencies in private, don't want us around. We're neither trusted nor appreciated. And the leaders we threw out are the leaders they believe are coming back.

Complete futility: utter waste. Train up a "national" Afghan army to take over – but forget that there isn't a national Afghan government whose writ runs beyond Kabul. Has anybody got a better idea? Ah! – just last week – raise local militias to confront the Taliban. Politics, as in loss of face, means we can't get out. But continuing war makes it imbecile to keep soldiers who want to fight for something worthwhile in the line of random roadside fire. At which point, try the Mullah Omar challenge.

If we could catch him, maybe we could declare hollow triumph (in Saddam mode) and begin to think about pulling out. Or try what the occasional hint from his hiding places has promised over the years: a negotiation that cuts al-Qaida links. In either case, there'd be traction. But what Nato lacks now, a lack that ought profoundly to depress president and prime minister as they meet in Washington this week, is any clue to the missing mullah's whereabouts. We can't lay a finger on him, which confirms just how bereft of Afghan success we are.

Four more Brits dead on Saturday, but barely a media mention of them on Sunday morning. This is a sacrifice we don't want to dwell on. But it's political cowardice rather than courage. It pretends there's no choice for fear of having to make one. And meanwhile, in the cauldron of Helmand, your average Afghan knows exactly where he's going next: back to a future of medieval complexity where he alone will be left to sort out the Taliban, just as he sorted out the transient regimes before. Right back where we started from, in a land where the one-eyed man is still emir.

Back to square one in Afghanistan | Peter Preston | Comment is free | The Guardian