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Old 27-12-10, 07:34 AM
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Default Hyperinflation arrives with the end of price subsidies in Iran

From Arabian Money

Hyperinflation arrives with the end of price subsidies in Iran

Posted on 23 December 2010


The street-price of bread is reported to have doubled in Tehran this week as price subsidies were removed from energy and food. Taxi prices jumped 40 per cent in reaction to a 900 per cent hike in diesel prices. Electricity and water prices jumped 300 per cent and household cooking gas by 500 per cent.

Officials said that food and energy subsidies have been costing Iran $100 billion a year and can no longer be afforded. They cited recommendations from the IMF suggesting the subsidies should be removed.


Hyperinflation

To help the poor handle these price increases the government is paying cash payments of $80 per month to those on the lowest incomes. Welcome to hyperinflation in Iran which is coming both from rising costs and rising income.

The government has proclaimed nothing short of an ‘economic revolution’. This appears to be like perestroika, the price liberalising economic reforms of the dying days of the Soviet Union. It resulted in empty shops as people bought anything to use up a devaluing currency, four-hour queues to buy bread, and of course a black market for everything.

Why has this been implemented as an ‘economic revolution’ rather than phased over time to allow people to adjust to the changes more gradually? It is not clear but the precedents for suddenly raising the cost of staples like bread in any country are not good.


Soviet example

In the case of the USSR the writing was on the wall from perestrioka and glastnost. Over on the other side of the Persian Gulf the Arabian Oil States can only watch and observe. But the immediate impact on trade flows, already badly crimped by international sanctions this year, cannot be good. Those who cannot afford bread do not buy other products.

Eventually the USSR broke up and after a decade of internal chaos Russia emerged as a new energy and commodities giant with a stable economy and the government in charge. There was good business to be had at various stages in this process, and those who stuck with it have profited enormously.

Likewise Iran will one day sort out its economic problems to the benefit of the wider region. Whether that starts with the hyperinflation of this week’s ‘economic revolution’ is less certain.
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Old 27-12-10, 09:18 PM
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26 December 2010 Last updated at 18:48 ET

Strike called over massive Bolivia fuel price rises

Police stand guard at a petrol station in La Paz, 26 Dec Fuel prices in Bolivia had been frozen for almost a decade

BBC News - Strike called over massive Bolivia fuel price rises

Bolivia has announced a sharp rise in the price of fuel, with petrol and diesel going up by more than 70%.

The main transport union called an indefinite strike in protest.

The state could not go on subsidising prices when so much fuel was being smuggled abroad by profiteers, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera said.

The government said it would compensate for the fuel price rise by increasing public sector wages and freezing utility bills.
'Tough test'

"We are bringing fuels up to international price levels," Mr Garcia said on Sunday.

"State subsidies cost $380m (£246m) a year; we don't want this to continue. We buy expensive diesel fuel and sell it cheap."

Low-octane petrol prices will now rise 73%, while diesel will go up 83%.

The vice president said that the move was aimed at stimulating energy companies to produce more oil and to import diesel and gasoline.

Fuel prices in the impoverished South American country had been frozen for almost a decade.

To mitigate the impact of the price hike, the government said it would increase public sector salaries above the inflation level and would also freeze utility bills.

It also said it would not raise prices on the natural gas that is converted into fuel for vehicles or domestic liquid gas, which many Bolivians use in their homes.

But anger in the country is already growing.

The Drivers' Confederation, which groups bus and lorry operators, called an indefinite strike starting on Monday.

The sudden embracing of free market principles will be a tough test of support for the country's left-wing President Evo Morales, correspondents say.
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Old 27-12-10, 09:20 PM
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China Stocks Drop After Fuel Price Increase; Banks, Tsingtao Pace Declines
By Bloomberg News -

China Stocks Drop After Fuel Price Increase; Banks, Tsingtao Pace Declines - Bloomberg

China’s stocks fell, led by producers of consumer staples and banks, after the government raised fuel prices and concern grew over lenders’ profitability as the government tightens monetary policy.

Kweichow Moutai Co. sank to a one month-low amid speculation energy costs for companies will rise, damping earnings growth, after China increased the price of gasoline and diesel for the third time this year. Agricultural Bank Of China Ltd. lost 0.8 percent after Barclays Capital said the government’s higher requirements on loans to local governments will cut lenders’ capital adequacy ratios and profits.

“Higher oil prices may spur faster inflation, adding to investor concerns about future policy tightening,” said Zhang Kun, a strategist at Guotai Junan Securities Co. in Shanghai.

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 26.22, or 0.9 percent, to 2,877.90 at the 3 p.m. close, the fifth decline in six days. The gauge climbed 1.8 percent yesterday as military tensions on the Korean peninsula eased. The CSI 300 Index fell 1.1 percent to 3,215.45.

The Shanghai Composite is Asia’s worst performing stock gauge this year with a 12 percent loss amid concern monetary tightening will slow economic growth and damp earnings. The government has ordered banks to set aside more money as reserves and raised interest rates to cool inflation and surging property prices that were spurred by record credit growth in 2009.

A gauge tracking consumer staples declined 1.3 percent, a fourth day of declines and the second-biggest loss among the CSI 300’s 10 industry groups.

Fuel Prices

Kweichow Moutai, China’s biggest liquor maker by market value, slumped 1.6 percent to 190.95 yuan, set for the lowest close since Nov. 23. Tsingtao Brewery Co., the second-biggest brewery by volume, dropped 2 percent to 35.79 yuan. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co. slipped 3.6 percent to 18.46 yuan.

Gasoline will rise by as much as 4 percent to 310 yuan a metric ton and diesel by 300 yuan a ton, the National Development and Reform Commission said. Crude in New York has gained 9 percent since China last increased prices on Oct. 26.

“This is a long-delayed move as the government is concerned about inflation while refiners are suffering losses after crude costs soared,” said Hei Wei, an oil analyst with BOCOM International Holdings Co. in Beijing. “We think the 4 percent increase is far from enough to offset crude gains.”

China’s two largest refiners reversed earlier gains. China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. fell 0.4 percent to 8.23 yuan after advancing as much as 2.4 percent. PetroChina Co. erased an increase of 2.2 percent to trade 0.7 percent lower at 11.44 yuan.

Food Prices

Inflation in China accelerated to 5.1 percent last month from a year earlier, the biggest jump in 28 months. Chinese consumers are more concerned about rising prices than at any time in the past decade, the People’s Bank of China said on Dec. 15 in its quarterly survey of 20,000 households.

The stock measure tracking consumer staples producers has rallied 17 percent this year as food prices surged and investors sought companies most sheltered from inflation. Food inflation reached 10 percent in October, more than twice the 4.4 percent headline rate.

China’s stocks are poised for a “very strong” 2011 as food prices ease by April, said Donald Straszheim, director of China research at International Strategy & Investment Group.

“By March or April, China food prices will be off the front pages; and the active monetary tightening will be off the front pages as well,” he wrote in a report. “That will set up China equities, sideways of recent, volatile and scary-headline driven, for a very strong 2011.”

The index tracking financial companies slid 1.6 percent, the biggest drop on the CSI 300 and extending a 24 percent rout this year that was spurred by tighter curbs on lending.

Bank Loans

The China Banking Regulatory Commission may require lenders to assign 100 percent risk weightings for loans fully covered by cash flows, up from the current 50 percent, and as much as a 300 percent for uncovered loans, Barclays said in a note today, citing a China Business News report published yesterday. The risk-weighting rule has already been made official, the note said, citing unidentified banks.

Agricultural Bank, the nation’s third largest by assets, lost 1.1 percent to 2.62 yuan, the biggest drop since Dec. 8. China Construction Bank Corp. declined 0.4 percent to 4.70 yuan, extending a 22 percent plunge in 2010.

Agricultural Bank will be hurt most by the change, Barclays analysts May Yan and Allen Zhang wrote. The government is trying to limit risks stemming from last year’s surge in loans to local-government finance vehicles for roads, bridges and railroads. Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) credit they’ve extended, a person with knowledge of data collected by the industry regulator said in July.

--Irene Shen. With assistance by Winnie Zhu in Shanghai. Editors: Richard Frost, Margo Towie

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Irene Shen in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-3049 or ishen4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net
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Old 27-12-10, 09:23 PM
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Tis the season I guess

Fuel Prices to go 10% by January 1, 2011.
News Desk , 27/12/2010

The Statesman : News : Fuel Prices to go 10% by January 1, 2011.

Information reaching The Statesman indicates that the ex-pump prices of fuel across the country would see an upward adjustment across the country by January 1, 2011.

This increment would further worsen the plight of the Ghanaian who is already saddled with the added burden of freshly announced tax hikes contained in the 2011 budget.

The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) is set to increase fuel prices by 10% as a result of hikes in crude oil prices on the world market. A barrel of crude oil is currently selling at $93.80. Experts are already looking at the $100-a-barrel mark as a harsh winter boosts demand in Western economies.

Aside the 10% increment next week, the ex-pump price of fuel will see an upward adjustment by an extra six (6) pesewas next year because of the 400% rise in TOR Debt Recovery levy announced by the Dr. Kwabena Duffuor as he read the 2011 budget.

The impending price increases brings to question the NDC government’s decision to hedge the purchase of the country’s crude oil as experts have raised questions over the negative cost implications associated with such a transaction.

It can be recalled that on the 25th of August 2010, the Mills-Mahama led NDC Government decided to hedge the purchase of the country’s crude oil on the world market. This followed recommendations by a Cabinet Committee charged to work out arrangements for the hedging of the country’s crude oil purchases.

The decision to hedge was expected to insulate the country from crude oil price volatility on the international market and Government is estimated to have spent between $30 to $60 million to finance the whole hedging arrangement.

It is expected that Utility prices will be increased before the end of January 2011.
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"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
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