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I disagree. Economic theory might be total bollocks, I'll agree with you on that, but debt repayment growing faster than your ability to repay as interest rates rise is a mathematical proposition.

Yeah, but it still affects different countries in different ways.

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If you're thinking of Japan, the answer's no. They are going to blow up in the next few years.

Hahaha! Not even that good, I'm afraid. I was thinking of various countries in Africa and Eastern Europe.

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Then Italy will become Greece except it's far too big to be bailed out in any way shape or form except by massive ECB printing accompanied by total fiscal surrender. How likely does that sound?

Possible. I've no idea why the rest of Europe puts up with so much bullshit from Italy. I don't know anyone who doesn't actually think they're complete shits. Spain is in the same situation but no one hates them that much.

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You're right/the OP is right in the sense that things carry on forever and a day... until, suddenly, BANG!, they don't. That's the most essential lesson of "This time is different - Eight Centuries of Financial Folly". As the authors point out, we've been there before. States have defaulted with some regularity in the slightly distant past...

BANG! They don't. Then they do again. It's not the end of the world.

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Originally Posted by Zichao

Seen the Greek Army lately?

Yeah, but I seem to remember the Krauts burning barrels of their money to stay warm a few years before they almost took over Europe.

Though in this day and age I think it would look more along the lines of fast tracking some nukes, sponsoring terrorism, and having a serious 2nd Cold War.

I imagine the Russians would love to sign on with these countries to spoil plans of a missile defense shield along with some general global nut flexing and sense of prestige.

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But the Germans already basically had a good manufacturing base and the necessary expertise and all the rest of it. WWI was a mild setback, but it didn't really alter the fundamentals of their economy.

The Greeks buy in all their weapons - their army's based on French add-ons bolted to knackered old Soviet platforms, all steampunk Gundam style.

I'm not buying the Russia scenario either - they're not SMERSH, doing random evil deeds just for teh lulz. Giving a nuke to Greece wouldn't help protect them against the US's missiles in any way, and would ruin what international credibility they have left.

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I don't think Greece poses much of a threat. A better comparator would be the Spanish Civil War.

The woprrying scenario is a breakdown of the europ proper, and an end to the long postwar arrangemewnt that stopped warring between european states. I don't think that's too likely, yet, either. But if the contagion can't be contained, if France and Germany are pulled own into the maelstrom and stuck there for a few decades... well then we shall see what we shall see.

Originally Posted by Zichao

But the Germans already basically had a good manufacturing base and the necessary expertise and all the rest of it. WWI was a mild setback, but it didn't really alter the fundamentals of their economy. The Greeks buy in all their weapons - their army's based on French add-ons bolted to knackered old Soviet platforms, all steampunk Gundam style. I'm not buying the Russia scenario either - they're not SMERSH, doing random evil deeds just for teh lulz. Giving a nuke to Greece wouldn't help protect them against the US's missiles in any way, and would ruin what international credibility they have left.

Well i'm throwing all the PIIGS in the same basket, Italy does have a robust manufacturing base for example and I imagine despite the relative peace of the past 20 years it would just be a matter of degrees of inflicted pain to reawaken old Irish nationalism. So on and so forth.

And I agree the Russians aren't cartoon villains, however I don't see their desire to put a stop to a US/EU missile shield within throwing distance of them as an evil thing... and arming the PIIGS isn't any different than the US arming other countries, including European ones. So I don't think its a fantastical scenario... though I would love to see some steampunk mechs slogging across the Danube.

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